Riding the Variance Rollercoaster

Im sure most of you will have read the Dean’s article “Variance the silent killer”, and if you havent then I would recommend you give it a read. I refer to it as I am currently being killed silently. My first month working with the Dean was a very positive one, I was beating $50NL at a respectable rate and felt that if I had nt got unlucky in a couple of spots then it could have been a terrific first month. The most important fact however was that I was improving as a player - I can categorically state I am a far better player now than I was in May. Then came July…

Poker is unlike any game I have ever played before as it has a totally unique way of humbling the player. For example in a sport such as rugby or cricket you will get to a level where you are out of your depth so simply moving down a few levels will see you totally dominate. Poker does not work like this due to the element of chance and moving down because you are being outplayed can be replaced by having to move down because you continually get beaten by players who you may have a massive edge over.

I began July feeling very positive with high aspirations of progressing up the levels quickly but unfortunately the game has decided that this is not to be the case. I am currently at the bottom of a 10 buy in downswing that has seen me unable to secure a big pot no matter what the odds are in my favour. I could bore you all with Hand Histories but realize that this would be counter-productive. The sorry fact is that these things happen in poker and is why practising proper bankroll management is essential to succeeding, as the Dean frequently states.

So what advice/thoughts can I give to players who are in my position, as I am sure many are? We are often taught to embrace the bad beats as a neccessary part of the game and to not tilt but this is easier said than done when that two outer hits on the river to pass your $ over to a player who you know will simply redistribute it around the table. But this is what we must do. The edge in poker is small - as a relatively inexperienced player my edge is even smaller as I certainly rely on the massive mistakes of the poor players at the table for my profits more than any Negreanu-esque ability to outplay people post flop - and this is what must be embraced and understood in my opinion, just because you read some books, think about the game and even get coaching does not give you the RIGHT to win at this game all the time as in fact losing is part and parcel of the winning.

This is why my perceived successes in June are totally irrelevant, what is important is that in June I improved my game 100%. In July I must do the same and whinging about how unlucky you are does not breed improvement. As hard as it may be, the financial swings must be regarded as inconsequential because if my game keeps getting better the results will (hopefully…) take care of themselves.