Just had to box clever

It isn’t often that I bet on boxing and I am a very keen listener to professional opinion. In fact this is basically what you have to do in sports betting but the key is to know who to listen to and how to translate what you hear into odds.

You just cannot know everything that there is to know about every sport. Some people specialise and that is a very good thing to do. I tend to think that you miss out on many opportunities doing that but it is certainly a sound professional approach.

Some people follow tipsters, there is merit to this but the fact is that 99% of punters who do this get this wrong. Firstly you need to know who the best tipsters are and you also have to remember that tipsters get paid to tip even when they are not confident in what they are tipping.

But no matter who the tipster is, you also have to remember that it is merely one persons opinion. I like to cross reference professional opinion from numerous different sources and then intersperse that with the latest up to date news and then try to see if a price is wrong.

I always find the process of knowing if a price is wrong easier than actually knowing what the correct theoretical price should be. This may sound odd to many professionals who would argue that how can you possibly know that a price is wrong unless you know what the correct price will be?

I don’t know, I can feel it sometimes so I guess it’s just experience. I suppose an analogy would be if you looked in the distance and saw really black storm clouds then you know the weather is going to get bad……but you still don’t know how bad but you do know that its time to close the windows and bring the washing in

Nikolai Valuev at 2.15 against David Haye? How can this monster of a Russian who has one defeat in 52 fights be worse than even money? He is 7ft 2″, has a 1ft reach advantage, 1ft height advantage, 7 stone weight advantage, is used to going 12 rounds, never been knocked out and is a multi-ex world champion to boot. His only loss was on points and he dropped his trainer after that fight. He reminds me of some character off a Playstation game that you get to fight on the hardest level.

I have been cross referencing opinion all week on this fight and my view is that the 2.15 that I got on Thursday was immense value. You can also get the same price today on Sporting Bet.

Even if Haye wins, this is one of those bets that I will still be happy that I took. Would also like to apologise for not keeping to my word about making this a daily blog. I have had some family issues recently that are taking up more of my time so they have had to take priority.

Anyway, take care and see you soon

Carl “The Dean” Sampson plays online poker at Pokerloco